Sustainable shipping fuels could reach cost parity with fossil fuels as early as 2035 with the help of decisive emissions policy such as carbon taxes and emissions limits, according to a new report launched today by technology group Wärtsilä.
The report, titled ‘Sustainable fuels for shipping by 2050 – the 3 key elements of success’, reveals that the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and FuelEU Maritime Initiative (FEUM)[i] will see the cost of using fossil fuels more than double by 2030. By 2035, they will close the price gap between fossil fuels and sustainable fuels for the very first time.
Transporting 80% of world trade, shipping is the engine room of the global economy. However, despite being the most efficient and environmental way to transport goods, it emits 2% of global emissions, equivalent to the annual emissions of Japan. Without action, this could increase by more than 45% by 2050.
In 2023, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) set a target of achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Existing decarbonisation solutions, such as fuel efficiency measures, could cut up to 27% of emissions[v]. Wärtsilä’s report argues that sustainable fuels will be a critical step in eliminating the remaining 73% but radical action is needed to scale them. The industry suffers from a “chicken and egg” challenge – ship owners won’t commit to a fuel today that is expensive, only produced in small quantities, and may be usurped by another fuel that scales faster and more affordably. Meanwhile, it is difficult for suppliers to scale production without clear demand signals.
Wärtsilä has produced new modelling that shows a timeline of which fuels are likely to become widely available on a global scale, when and at what cost. To accelerate this timeline, the report argues that decisive policy implementation, industry collaboration, and individual operator action must coalesce to scale the production of these fuels.
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